Building a manufacturing base is a lot easier when you have trade agreements.
We don't.
(, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 13:37, Reply)
This FUD again
Until the negotiations are concluded and agreed upon, we're still a member and party to those agreements. We haven't even opened the negotiations yet.
Negotiations are expected to take two years, with a possible year's extension. That should be sufficient for a properly motivated team to conclude parallel negotiation for replacement agreements.
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evil_andy Stick stick stick stick sticky sticky stick stick, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 14:13,
Reply)
The two year negotiations only relate to the 'divorce' proceedings,
not the replacement arrangements which are likely to take a lot longer (at least 7 years according to optimistic EU officials).
Until those negotiations are concluded it is impossible to tell what the trade position will be with the EU (let alone the rest of the world) and will act as a strong disincentive to invest in the UK.
(, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 14:36, Reply)
The key word I used was "parallel"
And it's in neither side's interests for the negotiations to last seven years. Two to three seems like a reasonable time span. Some trade deals have taken a lot longer, and some have taken a lot less time. The key is how motivated both parties would be to find a solution. I'd suggest in this case the answer would be "very".
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evil_andy Stick stick stick stick sticky sticky stick stick, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 15:20,
Reply)
Does the civil service contain sufficient numbers of experienced trade negotiators
in order to conduct such a massive undertaking as to renegotiate all our agreements in parallel?
(
wheresthefish Partly filled with wrong, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 15:36,
Reply)
Well if it doesn't
then you've just created a large number of skilled job opportunities. Hooray!
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evil_andy Stick stick stick stick sticky sticky stick stick, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 16:19,
Reply)
If they can be conducted in parallel, fine.
The optomists are still saying seven years to negotiate a new UK-EU trade deal. The US, China, India and Japan have stated they will not start trade talks with the UK until the UK-EU deal is finished. I'm not convinced both parties are very motivated, just the UK.
(, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 17:55, Reply)
Yes we do.
And those we do will last at least 2 years from when we decide to leave.
After that, if everyone has decided to go on holiday and not work out some deals, in this extreme case we can trade with tariffs under WTO rules.
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Cerebus Sticky! Sticky! Stick! Stick!, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 16:44,
Reply)
Until the deals are signed and sealed on the replacement of the EU based trade agreements,
investing in manufacturing in the UK will be very risky and this will deter investment.
(, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 18:10, Reply)
That's a different aspect and dependent on what happens in the next few months.
So you agree that we currently do have trade deals?
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Cerebus Sticky! Sticky! Stick! Stick!, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 18:24,
Reply)
The UK does not, the EU does.
This is semantics but as we have voted to leave the EU no business can gaurantee the nature of the trade arrangments from this point forward.
(, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 18:29, Reply)
No it's not semantics.
We have at least 2 years of trade agreements because that is how long we will still be a member of the EU for.
that is very different to your assertion that we currently have no trade agreements.
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Cerebus Sticky! Sticky! Stick! Stick!, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 18:52,
Reply)
This is very much an argument based on semantics.
What I take as the meaning of 'we have' is different from what you take the meaning to be, that is all.
The point, that you are choosing to ignore, is that by voting to leave the EU we have created significant uncertanty that will deter investment in the UK and in particular in UK manufacturing.
(, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 19:13, Reply)
If that was your point
You should have mentioned it, instead of asserting that we no longer have any trade deals.
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evil_andy Stick stick stick stick sticky sticky stick stick, Mon 27 Jun 2016, 23:35,
Reply)