Stock markets are undergoing a seasonal setback that could see 15 percent wiped off the major indexes, but the real risk of a double dip won't appear until 2011The risk of the double dip is in 2011, so all we've got now is a risk of a seasonal setback… this is the weakest season of the year now. Traditionally September is the weakest month in the year and you make a low in October. So I'm going for the normal seasonal deviation, which gives us a risk of about 15 percent. The economic numbers suggest if there's going to be a double dip, that takes place in 2011 and of course governments will be trying everything they can to stop that happening. Stocks are in a long-term secular trend which peaked ten years ago and has been in decline ever since. In the long-term trend there have been numerous cyclical bull periods, such as the one that peaked in April.
Then we've had a big fall, we had a mid-summer rally. That's all that's ended recently, was the mid-summer rally.
Hope that helps.
(Then we've had a big fall, we had a mid-summer rally. That's all that's ended recently, was the mid-summer rally.
Hope that helps.
zoldergoose,
Mon 16 Aug 2010, 13:56,
archived)
hey mate.Just checking. You having any problems getting emails on your b3tamail account? I tried sending you a mail interally to the domain as I've set you up hosting for b3ta but i'm getting errors.
(
riverghost servicing your mum since,
Mon 16 Aug 2010, 14:03,
archived)
I've got it set up forwarding to another account, and that seems to be checking for emails okHaven't received one for a while though
( zoldergoose,
Mon 16 Aug 2010, 14:16,
archived)