It always made sense to me
if the guy always picks a goat then you've either already got the car (1/3 chance) or you picked a goat (2/3 chance) so it makes sense to swap.
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Peej, Fri 4 Mar 2011, 9:58,
Reply)
Yep
The first choice you make has a 1\3 probability of being right, however the second has 1\2 probability. The higher probability means that you should always go for it.
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LemonEntryMyDearWatson This time, Moriarty, the hand is on the other foot, Fri 4 Mar 2011, 10:51,
Reply)