ConnedswiftyisNOTevil writes, "I have recently become obsessed with the BBC Three show 'The Real Hustle' - personally, I think of it as a 'How To' show for aspiring con artists."
Have you carried out a successful con? Perhaps you hustled a few quid off a stranger, or defrauded a multi-national company. Or have you been taken for the wide-eyed, naive rube that you are?
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chthonic, Thu 18 Oct 2007, 13:02)
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Arbitrage bettingTo rip bookies off:
For this use the European odds sytem, it makes so much more sense than the UK or US ones. It's a number like 1.8 or 2.15 and its the amount of £/$/€ you get paid for winning that bet with a stake of £1/€1/$1. So 2.15 means you get 2.15 for betting 1, a profit of 1.
If you inverse these numbers (ie. divide 1 by it) and add them together, they will always add up to more than 1 from the same bookies. In a system that truly represented the risks they'd add up to exactly one, but they have to make profit. A typical two-outcome event might be 1.8 and 2.15 so (1/1.8) + (1/2.15) = ~1.02, giving them roughly 2% profit (probably be more than that though).
But different bookies sometimes have different opinions as to the odds of different outcomes, particuarly as punters might bet differently on them, which of course changes them. So it might be possible that you can find 2.15 at one bookie and 2.15 for the OTHER outcome at another bookie. (1/2.15 + 1/2.15) = ~0.93, which is equivilant to saying that the chance of either outcome happening is 93%, so that 7% that's disappeared gives you a guarenteed profit for either event.
That's all fine in theory, but actually finding these bets is the hard bit. There are websites that collate them but unless you pay them £150 a month or some other ridiculous amount then you get out of date odds which by the time you find them on the respective bookie's website have changed.
So I could con bookies, but the tools that would allow me to are a massive con.
(, Mon 22 Oct 2007, 23:33, Reply)
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