continuing EU membership more likely under a government that is actively seeking to remain or rejoin than one that is actively seeking to leave
In any case, Spain may look differently on Scotland rejoining after seceding from a non-EU member state rather than from a EU member
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:01, Reply)
Benny, wrong about everything, all of the time.
It must be exhausting being Benny. Have a lie down Benny.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:03,
Reply)
Yes I am sure they would welcome Scotland in after they set the example of how the Basque country could leave Spain then join the eu.
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Cerebus Sticky! Sticky! Stick! Stick!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:13,
Reply)
to follow our example they'd have to persuade the Spanish to leave the EU (unlikely), then they'd leave Spain
Assume that European leaders want the EU to remain intact or as intact as possible. Last time, the threat of Spanish veto was aimed at Scots worried about continuing EU membership. This time, Scotland will have left anyway
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:39, Reply)
Except...
It's not continuation. An independent Scotland would be a new nation state; the only way they could claim continuity would be to embrace the idea that they were actually decolonising England. Now, you might point to the Stuart accession in 1603 as evidence that - contrary to appearances - it was England that was dependent on Scotland; but if that's true, then it rather takes the wind out of any claims about Scottish independence.
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Enzyme is powered by sunlight, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:14,
Reply)
But the Act of Union only came about because the Porridge-wogs managed to bankrupt themselves in the Darien Scheme.
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stuj (^(^;;^)^) GO TEAM SPIDERS!(^(^;;^)^), Mon 13 Mar 2017, 18:18,
Reply)
not so sure
Many other factors at play here - Gibraltar, fishing rights etc. They may decide they want to make life as difficult as possible for the English
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:44, Reply)
Would you care to explain how they would let Scotland join the EU as an independent country because of Gibraltar and fishing rights?
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Cerebus Sticky! Sticky! Stick! Stick!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:50,
Reply)
the Spanish fleet will want to retain access to Scots fishing waters
And they may calculate that a fragmenting UK may help them get their hands on Gibraltar. There are rooms full of people in every European capital mulling over similar things right now
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:04, Reply)
I think Spain will be told to fuck off over that one.
Gib had a referendum in 2002 in which 99% of the population said would they hell agree to Spanish control.
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Draconacticus Reject shampoo. Demand real poo!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:11,
Reply)
it's all changed now
If they dont have EU citizenship life's going to get a lot harder - which is why 96% of them voted to remain
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:14, Reply)
So you think because of that they'll either let themselves be absorbed by Spain or join the EU as an independent country?
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Cerebus Sticky! Sticky! Stick! Stick!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:24,
Reply)
It depends on a million decisions yet to be taken in Madrid, London, Brussels and elsewhere
If you wanted certainty you should have voted the other way
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:34, Reply)
Hey this is your theory not mine, not up to me to provide certainties about it.
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Cerebus Sticky! Sticky! Stick! Stick!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:44,
Reply)
my theory:
The Spanish will exercise their veto if they feel it's in their national interest. They will take into account that their actions may stoke independence movements in their own country but that will not be their sole consideration. The situation has changed since the last Scottish referendum.
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:53, Reply)
They are all worried the border will get closed again, but that hasn't meant they all want to be Spanish all of a sudden.
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Draconacticus Reject shampoo. Demand real poo!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:59,
Reply)
Madrid doesnt want them to become Spanish all of sudden
They've said they want joint control which they (probably) see as a transitional step to full sovereignty
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 16:06, Reply)
Even though the Spanish in La Linea oppose it.
I wonder if Madrid is going to hand back the Canary Islands, Ceuta and Meillila to their rightful owners as part of their plans?
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Draconacticus Reject shampoo. Demand real poo!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 16:21,
Reply)
And you've blown them all!
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BrokenCoccyx doesn't mind if you grope on, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 15:32,
Reply)
The Gibraltar issue is an interesting one.
Madrid wants it back but the locals in La Linea who depend on Gibraltar for their livelihoods want it to stay British because they know their government will only go and fuck it up.
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Draconacticus Reject shampoo. Demand real poo!, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:54,
Reply)
if Spain's intention is to make life difficult for the English they have two years to do so
at the negotiating table. Scotland won't have to be on the agenda
(, Mon 13 Mar 2017, 14:55, Reply)
