b3ta.com qotw
You are not logged in. Login or Signup
Home » Question of the Week » Gambling » Post 417996 | Search
This is a question Gambling

Broke the bank at Las Vegas, or won a packet of smokes for getting your tinkle out in class? Outrageous, heroic or plain stupid bets.

Suggested by SpankyHanky

(, Thu 7 May 2009, 13:04)
Pages: Popular, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

« Go Back | See The Full Thread

Casinos are wise to this
If you look at any real world or online casino they state minimum and MAXIMUM table bets, e.g. $5 and $500. The maximum is not there from the goodness of their hearts. They know all about doubling up so they stick a maximum in there to stop people from constantly doubling up to recoup their losses. I'd add that it would be trivial for a casino to spot someone doubling up and simply tell them to piss off, probably at the worst moment.
(, Fri 8 May 2009, 19:36, 1 reply)
Why?
They'd tend to get the house edge anyway, and most of these systems give a way of "ensuring" a small win, so even if it works the house loss is small. (in the system above, each time you win, your pot goes up by your initial bet compared to what it was after the last win).
Since someone on a limited table will keep this bet small to prevent short runs from scuppering the plan, the house won't pay out too much.

Note that the "get your initial bet after each win" nature does mean that doing the same system but staying on red (to make the example simpler to word) would allow you to add (say) £1 to the pot each time red came up, but would require large amounts in the starting pot to get anywhere.

If any maths genius wants to calculate the odds of getting 100 reds before a run of 10 blacks comes up, it would be rather interesting (that amounts to winning £100 from an initial pot of £1024).
(, Fri 8 May 2009, 23:48, closed)
^
"most of these systems give a way of "ensuring" a small win"

No they don't. The odds are stacked in the Casino's favour. The only potential for profit is when you manipulate your stake [Martingale or any other of a plethora of LOSING plans] AND quit as soon as you're ahead. Roulette is a game of chance and not skill.

On a standard European wheel there are 37 slots. 18 red, 18 black and a slot marked 0, normally green. [US wheels also have an 00 slot further putting the odds in the Casino's favour.]

You don't need to analyse a series of outcomes, the 'game' comes down to a single spin. You're betting on a colour - either red or black - you have 18 out of 37 chances to be correct, which is 48.64%. Ignoring the Casino's policy on stake returns when 0 lands, the house has 19 out of 37 chances to be correct, which is 51.35%

Red/black pays evens [1/1] which equates to a 50% chance. You're backing at 48.64%. Every time. No matter what colour landed before. No matter what stake you have on.

The Casino is offering you 50% [when it's true chance is 51.35%] on you being correct when the true chance of you being correct is 48.64%.

Simplistically, 51.35% minus 48.64% gives a house advantage of 2.71% EVERY TIME THE WHEEL SPINS. Which as the clued up will have worked out is the same advantage as the house zero against the 36 other slots, 1/37 gives ~2.7%.

On such small percentages are vast fortunes made.
(, Sat 9 May 2009, 11:49, closed)
aye, thats why the quotes.
However, if you are aiming for a certain amount, with a practically infinite pot (or at least much larger), then these give you a systematic way of betting until you amass the number of wins needed to get that amount.
Unfortunately the amount you get each win must be much less than your pot, or the casino maximum, and if the casino minimum is 1/100 of the maximum, then a run of 7 scuppers you, which will happen 58.9% of the time in 100 spins. To make a profit after one of these runs you need to have won 64 times before this happens (since you cant place the 7th bet for 128 times the minimum, and have just lost a bet for 64 times the minimum).
I cant do the calculations for that, but whatever happens the house edge comes out unchanged in your expected final profit.
(, Sat 9 May 2009, 23:17, closed)

« Go Back | See The Full Thread

Pages: Popular, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1