Number 3 is never going to happen.
There's no way the UK will ever get access to the Single Market while gaining control of freedom of movement or not paying its way. The reason being if they did, half the EU would leave the EU.
( The Awful Puppy Bakery is still bored, Wed 29 Jun 2016, 0:33, 1 reply)

I'd wait and see
If other EU countries start demanding referenda (which they are doing, 40 so far) then the EU may be keen to cut a deal quite quickly to quieten things down. Never underestimate the willingness of bureaucrats to protect their personal fiefdoms and benefits by doing backroom deals, in spite of what might be said in public.
(plankton, Wed 29 Jun 2016, 8:19, closed)

40?
There are 40 referenda in 27 countries? Sorry if I'm missing something really obvious.
(Bosch balls, Wed 29 Jun 2016, 16:38, closed)

actually it turned out to be 34
you can have more than one referendum going at the same time in a country. And I am told it is referendums, not referenda. Only ponces say referenda, so I guess I am one.
(plankton, Wed 29 Jun 2016, 19:11, closed)

Americans tend to say referenda,
British people tend to say referendums. I'm with the British ob this one.
( The Awful Puppy Bakery is still bored, Wed 29 Jun 2016, 19:33, closed)