It's 3 % if we assume that we've recorded all the cases of infection.
But that's extremely unlikely. In relatively young, relative healthy people, Covid19 is a minor inconvenience.
It's estimated that there may be an extra 100 % of cases out there, unreported - which would put the mortality rate at morel ike 1.5 %, which is very similar to the rate we get from regular flu.
Speculation, of course, and not much comfort for people who are in the at-risk groups, like I am.
(
Invisible Wizard - 10th Level Nerf-herder, Sun 8 Mar 2020, 7:31,
Reply)
I'm interested where the 1.5% for flu came from
Most of the stats I've seen quote the death rate being nearer 0.1%.
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tarka_dall Like normal dall, only a bit more spicy, Sun 8 Mar 2020, 8:02,
Reply)
Again, the official figures only account for those that seek medical assistance due to Flu symptoms.
The actual death rate likely is closer to 0.1%, but it's impossible to calculate accurately as the majority won't seek medical assistance.
(, Sun 8 Mar 2020, 8:59, Reply)
That is absolutely not how the figures for flu mortality are calculated.
Populations are sampled to see how many people have antibodies after a flu season. Then it is known how many people had the flu, and the mortality rate is pretty accurate. The same thing will happen for this coronavirius. We'll know what the mortality rate really is in 18 months or so.
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The Awful Puppy Bakery is still bored, Sun 8 Mar 2020, 13:59,
Reply)
this seems fairly recent, if... uhh.. vague
www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020
"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."
It's unclear from the wording, but it's not 1.5%, and while it could be 0.1%, it seems less likely they would choose to express that as 'far fewer than 1%'?
also backs up the point about 3.4% being a measure of reported cases, not all cases.
(, Sun 8 Mar 2020, 9:01, Reply)
Thanks all for the comments - pretty much as I thought.
TBH my main concern is whether the spread can be slowed sufficiently to avoid hospitals being swamped - I've not seen anything to suggest how much the survival rate is affected by not having access to hospital care, but based on what I've seen from pneumonia I suspect it wouldn't be good.
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tarka_dall Like normal dall, only a bit more spicy, Sun 8 Mar 2020, 16:58,
Reply)
Thing is
Those are two different things - the number of COVID cases reported are simply the number of people who are diagnosed - through whatever means.
However, the number of people infected with flu is far higher than the number who report their infection with flu.
So the denominator will be smaller in the case of COVID because they haven't done any random testing yet to discover how many people have had COVID but did not recognise/report it.
(, Mon 9 Mar 2020, 18:48, Reply)
