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This is a question Biggest opportunity I've blown

Not Alan Partridge tells us: "I was once offered the chance to co-present a programme on national radio. Audience of millions, but blew up spectacularly, my entire contribution being the rustling of paper in the background. I was that bad, I have since burned my copy of the pilot show." Tell us about your big break, and how you messed it up.

(, Thu 3 Apr 2014, 14:22)
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There is some logic to it though. Doubling up is a perfectly
legitimate strategy, but only in the right conditions.

If I lose a bet for £5, if I then double up and bet a tenner and win, I'm ahead.

But, there are requirements for it to be a perfect strategy.

1. The odds have to be 1:1 at least.
2. The outcomes can only be binary.

Let's assume those are near enough attainable - you only take very low priced bets, on simple games.

3. This is the one that fucks them up - you have to have enough money to carry on doubling up till you win.

The stakes increase exponentially. You lose the tenner, the next one is 20. Then 40, then 80.

Good example of this - Nick Leeson.
(, Fri 4 Apr 2014, 17:12, 2 replies)
Agreed
but as you say, the result has to be a even chance win or lose type bet. if it isn't win/lose 50/50, the game theory drops.

This almost exists in the casino world; red/black & High/Low on Roulette (if we ignore the 0/00) but they do not exist in the bookie world, due to the minimum 5% margin the bookie makes on the book. Normally the margin is more like 9% on a football match, 20% on a horse race.

So, as long as you have the money, you will always make a profit of the original stake. This is very unlikely in a betting shop, as there are almost no even chance, 2 result games.
(, Fri 4 Apr 2014, 17:41, closed)
If you have infinite credit this sort of strategy always wins.
Unfortunately, the kind of people who might be prepared to give you infinite credit, tend to live in bins underneath rail bridges.
(, Fri 4 Apr 2014, 17:49, closed)

Roulette is pretty close to 50-50, but the combination of floor limits and bad runs turning up kills that idea. It's almost as if they've been in business for centuries and have the whole thing nailed down tight!
(, Sat 5 Apr 2014, 13:52, closed)
It's Called the Martingale Strategy
And there's always some fuckwit who thinks they're the first person to think of it. You need infinite time and funds for it to pay off. And when it does, you have only won your smallest amount and risked huge amounts.
(, Sun 6 Apr 2014, 23:38, closed)

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