Well you can think of it like that but you'll be wrong.

(PsychoChomp, Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:07, 1 reply, 13 years ago)

i can se the logic to your solution
however it feels like clever maths rather than actual real world fact
( Naked Ape call me Caitlyn, Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:11, Reply)

It's a real world fact that has been proven by repeately opening boxes.

(PsychoChomp, Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:12, Reply)

I AGREE WITH CHOMPY

( Peej, Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:21, Reply)

no, statistically it's entirely correct
the problem is that it only works if you assume that the questionmaster didn't know there would be goats behind door 2. Once you accept that if it were a real world problem there would be knowledge on the part of the questionmaster then the odds are meaningless
( the mighty badger Aphrodite, on a bar stool, by your side, Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:24, Reply)

It works because at the point you chose your box you had a 2/3 chance of being wrong
when they remove one of the wrong boxes you still have the same chance of being wrong but because they have removed an incorrect box you have a 2/3 chance that the other box is right.

You see?
( Peej, Wed 20 Jun 2012, 16:26, Reply)