Chompy is probably going to be right on one thing
I can't see how we're getting out of this mess without some sort of deeper housing market slump. We're barely scraping along with rock-bottom interest rates. Sooner or later they're going to have to go up again.
( Kroney, Thu 15 Aug 2013, 12:18, 1 reply, 12 years ago)

there won't be a housing slump as such
there will be some parts of the country getting fucked and others continuing to rise
( rachelswipe with a fork, Thu 15 Aug 2013, 12:23, Reply)

London will be safe enough, it always is.
The rest of the country is where things will suffer and there's a lot of people living there and earning far below the London average.
( Kroney, Thu 15 Aug 2013, 12:29, Reply)

London isn't at all safe
because property there is more over-valued than anywhere.

It's safe as long as there is demand and people can afford it. But when police, nurses, teachers, etc etc really can't afford to live there any more, then you've got a problem. Unless you think a city with no healthcare, policing or transport is going to remain an attractive option?
( the mighty badger Aphrodite, on a bar stool, by your side, Thu 15 Aug 2013, 12:35, Reply)

So what do you think will actually happen?

( Kroney, Thu 15 Aug 2013, 12:36, Reply)

I've not the faintest idea, mate
you're probably right that London will stay hugely over-inflated. But it's very dangerous to say "it'll always be safe" because it's ridiculously over-valued right now and there will be a limit to what values can reach, for the reasons I gave and many others. And the more overpriced everything is when that happens, the more abrupt the cliff-face fall with be.
( the mighty badger Aphrodite, on a bar stool, by your side, Thu 15 Aug 2013, 12:41, Reply)

Let's use an example I think I've done before.
I used to work in London and had a house down there. I sold and moved up here. Academics are paid the same anywhere in the UK. So, now, if I wanted to go back I'd have to take a massive quality of life hit to afford a decent property. So I won't. Nor will many others. Eventually the London Unis will not be able to attract top-end academics for this reason and the quality will fall, so then the funding will fall. The funding that also supports large parts of the hospitals associated with universities. And businesses associated with them, and commercial collaborations, and so on and so forth. Same for anything where salaries are set nationwide. Something's got to break in the end.
( the mighty badger Aphrodite, on a bar stool, by your side, Thu 15 Aug 2013, 12:45, Reply)