if september and october are sunny and dry
then I will be happier than if august was.

something that has just occurred to me: some of the finest weather and climate scientists in the world work for the met office. they can't predict the weather with anything even approaching accuracy and yet the global climate change predictions are believed. just a thought...
( Vipros. clever got me this far, then tricky got me in, Wed 29 Jul 2009, 10:11, 1 reply, 16 years ago)

I never trust a weather forecast longer than three days.
Long-term modelling based on long-term observations and trends is considerably more reliable than the Met Office's five-day forecasts.
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Wed 29 Jul 2009, 10:14, Reply)

long-term modelling isn't that accurate
especially given the number of parameters involved in global models, and that they don't really have long-term observations to base them all on. too many assumptions for my liking.

I don't trust any of the met offices forecasts. there are far more reliable ones out there. and even those aren't very reliable.
( Vipros. clever got me this far, then tricky got me in, Wed 29 Jul 2009, 10:18, Reply)

Very long term forecasting
is based on ice-cores and geological archaeology and many other factors. I agree it's not perfect, but I'd trust it much more than anything the Met Office produces.
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Wed 29 Jul 2009, 10:21, Reply)