A tax for people who are bad at maths
Disclaimer: this post contains maths. The concepts are simple, and the sums are already done for you.

Like many, many people nationwide, I played the National Lottery every week for its first year. I held out hope that my numbers would come up and solve all my worries. Hoped that is until our maths teacher, Mr Tucker, gave us a lesson in probability.

The odds of correctly guessing one number to be drawn from the 49 lottery balls is 1:49, or 1 in 49. That would leave 48 balls, so a subsequent correct guess would be a 1:48 chance, and so on, for all six balls:

49 X 48 X 47 X 46 X 45 X 44 = 10,068,347,520

or a little over ten billion to one.

Of course, you don't need to pick the numbers in the same order they are drawn. For any six numbers, there are 720 ways they can be drawn, using much the same calculation as above

6 X 5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 = 720

If we take the larger odds and divide them by the small one, we're left with

10,068,347,520 / 720 = 13,983,816

or just under fourteen million to one. These are the odds of you correctly guessing six out of 49 numbers drawn in the lottery and are, I believe, still printed on the back of lottery tickets.

Does that sound like incredibly long odds? Anyone taking the occasional punt on a 100 to 1 shot in the Grand National knows that, while it wins occasionally to the frustration of the bookies, most of the time their money is wasted. Would you put a quid on a horse with odds of fourteen million to one?

Mr Tucker gave us another interesting insight into how unlikely a win on the lottery is.

It's said that there's a one in one thousand chance that a healthy, middle-aged man will die of any cause in the next year. If we expand on that, the chance of him dying in the next week is 1:52,000; the next day, 1:365,000. The chance of him dying in the next hour is 1:8,760,000.

So, we could say that a man has a better chance of dying in the next three quarters of an hour than he does of winning the lottery.

And that's why I maintain my belief that the lottery is a tax for people who are bad at maths.
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:32, 36 replies)

i have a fool proof technique though
i buy one hundred tickets every week, thus increasing my chances of winning 100 fold

=P


i concur that the lottery really is for the lose though.
(TheManWithThePlan cussed your mum on, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:37, closed)

Not 100-fold
Just very slightly increasing your chances to 100 in fourteen million :)
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:41, closed)

well, yes
hence the =P

i was merely mocking the moronic people out there who actually think that way.
(TheManWithThePlan cussed your mum on, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:44, closed)

Aha
Internet irony is hard to detect ;)
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:49, closed)

Pedant alert!
100 in 14 million is still 100-fold against 1 in 14 million.
(Jester_, Fri 8 May 2009, 17:14, closed)

I was afraid of that :)

( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 17:29, closed)

I made this argument to a member of my wife's family not long ago
And a few weeks later they won the Irish lottery, getting several million pounds.
The argument still stands, of course, but it was a bit irritating.

IIRC, the actual expected return on investment for the Lottery, taking into account all the possible sums, is about 50p for every pound, although obviously that fluctuates depending on how many are playing, and in particular if there's a rollover.

Compare this to other forms of 'pure' gambling and it's incredibly poor. The best pure luck gamble is Blackjack, where if you play the optimum game I think it's a return of almost 99.5% - a very good chance of coming out ahead in the short term, although obviously you'll still lose in the long term.

But as far as I can see the only thing worth gambling on is games of skill, where you can actually have some sense of your own ability compared with those around you. Poker, pool, backgammon, that kind of thing.
( flatfrog Staring vacantly into space, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:43, closed)

Just under 50p in each pound is paid out in prizes
So yeah :)
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:48, closed)

not quite
i believe baccarat to have better payout than blackjack, hence why the house always takes a table fee to play - so they make their cut decent. Its a bit like the poker tables buy in fee.
( bazza van der trance , ooh baby baby, baby baby. Get up on this., Fri 8 May 2009, 10:50, closed)

Yes but................
You've got to be in it to win it.

I play the lottery but I know what the odds are.


But then again....


It could be me.
( girlinthehole, Fri 8 May 2009, 9:51, closed)

The whole 'You've got to be in it to win it' thing bugged me
It's a bit like saying 'If you don't take part, you won't get to spend a quid for an incredibly slim chance at winning a life-changing sum of money.'

Good on you for keeping the faith, though. The proceeds from the lottery does a lot of good work nationwide.
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 10:01, closed)

I don't see
what your problem is with the Lottery.

I think most people know the odds. People do win - and sneering at them is part of the game.

In my opinion it's better than paying tax. As you say money from lottery funds do a lot of good work and many winners give a great deal to charity.
(jackhiggs no longer a v!rgin as of..., Fri 8 May 2009, 10:45, closed)

I don't have a problem with the lottery!
I'm simply pointing out how incredibly unlikely it is that you'll win.

Most people might know the odds, but might not understand them.
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 10:48, closed)

.
Its Bread and Circuses all over again tho.
The Lottery like Reigion gives people Hope, as any good social scientist knows you have to dangle a carrot in front of the population occasionally. Or esle there its a easier path to riots and revolution.

Question for you though.
I know 2 "freinds of a freinds" who became millionares, one was the cousion of close freind and the other was the brother in law of someone I used to prop up the bar with. Is that the whole six degress of seperation, what are the odds of that.
(Gru being trolled since 1998, Fri 8 May 2009, 10:49, closed)

The same guy won the jackpot twice, blew it both times
That's so improbable it hurts!..and deeply unfair, but maths doesn't give a jot for our flawed concept of fairness ;)
( Jessie © needs pirate name suggestions, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:01, closed)

See, it irritates ME that people insist on basically calling you moronic for playing the lottery
I know how slim the chances are, I'm actually NOT stupid, by labelling it 'a tax for people who are bad at maths' you discount the fact that there are people who HAVE done the maths...and still choose to play.

For years I never did the lottery, pretty much because I knew the most likely outcome would be a big fat waste of money. But last year I had a revelation, that argument only works if that money is significant:
If you play once a week it's £1.
£4 a month.
£52 a year.

Now I don't know about you, but I've spent that much on taking a friend or loved one out for a nice meal. Hell, I've spent that much on a few hours down the pub! To me, that money would be easy to misplace and so insignificant, in the scheme of things that amount of money is worth it to me to be 'in the game', for it to be possible that I could suddenly find myself with a significant amount of money...even though I know the odds are very, very stacked against me.

Well done on doing the most sensible thing to your mind, but please don't blanket group those who play as stupid just because they have a different perspective to you.
( Jessie © needs pirate name suggestions, Fri 8 May 2009, 10:58, closed)

I hear you.
And apologies that you've taken it personally - that wasn't my aim. Yes, it's a slight, and yes, it's probably unfair. But it's rather tongue-in-cheek. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:04, closed)

I would have to be pretty dumb to take this site seriously
so MY apologies for writing that quite so seriously, I didn't really take it personally I just wanted to put the other side across :)

There are a lot of people who never stop to think about the odds, and many of those really can't afford what they're pouring into the game, especially since most people don't limit themselves to just one ticket- just as £52 a year isn't significant to me; twice, three times, four times that very soon builds up into VERY significant amounts!

You are right in what you say, I just don't like blanket statements because there's nearly always another side.
( Jessie © needs pirate name suggestions, Fri 8 May 2009, 15:34, closed)

I'm normally very careful
because a closed mouth gathers no foot, and all that. This was just a blip :)
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 16:37, closed)

.
The odds of a 30-something man dying in any one year are roughly 1,000 to 1, but that's everyone, not just "healthy" ones - so a large number of those who die would have long-standing illnesses or other factors giving them a much higher death risk (serious mental health issues for instance). So a male who starts a given statistical year in a "healthy" state has only a fraction of those odds of dying, and even smaller odds that it would happen in a short space of time (say the next hour) - the only likely causes of which are unforeseen accidents / freak occurrences (being hit by a bus / car crash etc) or sudden medical things like heart attacks / strokes etc.

So assuming you are healthy you probably ARE more likely to win the lottery this week than you are to die unexpectedly...but only if you've bought a ticket. Hence statistics prove that everyone should enter the lottery, because if you don't then your chances of dying in the near future definitely far exceed your chances of winning a large amount of money, which is a truly depressing thought.

(I will now be slightly paranoid when I leave the office at lunchtime - there are lots of buses near where I work.)
(wombler, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:06, closed)

I think the stupid ones are those who have very little money but splurge £20 on lottery tickets every week.
I've seen them in the newsagents playing 10 or 20 lines at a time because they think they will have a better chance of winning.
( girlinthehole, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:10, closed)

what to do
is to buy 9 lottery tickets so you get all the numbers, then cut them up and glue them together. they'll never suspect that
( spacefish bong!, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:48, closed)

Would I put £1 on a 14m/1 horse?
Hell yeah! What's £1? Sure it's a long shot but for the price of less than 2 pints per month it's worth a go.

Saying that, I have never actually done the lottery.
(Martin1337 was trying and failing to be funny at, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:22, closed)

So let me get this straight....
....There are 720 possible combinations of 6 numbers?

Therefore, could I buy 720 tickets at £1 each using every single combination, knowing that I will not only win the jackpot, but also several 3 number, 4 number and 5 number wins?

£720 investment for a guaranteed 7-figure return surely?
(porkinator is a Rock n Roll nerd!, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:33, closed)

That... doesn't sound right.
But I'm convinced.
( gareth_alien will be human again at, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:38, closed)

What about...
the Bonus Ball?
(kingnutter, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:45, closed)

Sorry, no
I'll edit my post accordingly.

Given any set of six numbers, there are 6 X 5 X 4 X 3 X 2 X 1 = 720 ways they can be drawn.
( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 12:01, closed)

Oh I see
I'm glad I read this before I went and blew £720
(porkinator is a Rock n Roll nerd!, Fri 8 May 2009, 12:45, closed)

A lucky escape!

( Noeli overtheshoulderboulderholderthingstraplatchboobs, Fri 8 May 2009, 13:35, closed)

Ah, but there's a 1 in 56 chance of winning a tenner...
*doesn't actually work for the National Lottery*

*or play it (much)*
( TheMagicDwarf is back like ballroom dancing, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:39, closed)

I rarely played
the Lottery before I moved abroad (in total, 5 lines, 40 quid return).

One night, I decided to get two lines.

Line 1: 3 numbers - 10 quid
Line 2: completely different 3 numbers - another 10 quid.

I had the bastarding jackpot split between two fucking lines - something like 8million that night IIRC.
(bamboozled Can hear you getting fatter, Fri 8 May 2009, 11:41, closed)

But...
Someones got to win... as my Dad always says

I dont usually go in for it but £110,000,000.00 is worth a punt i reckon!


And your not getting any!
(Is this a good idea? ... Yes this is definitely a good idea, Fri 8 May 2009, 13:09, closed)

Hmmm...
what is this lottery you speak of???

Never heard of it...

Great post - thanks for pointing this shit out to me. I can now go to the pub armed with a shitload of useful facts to make myself look big and clever.

Nice one! - click!
( SpankyHanky, Fri 8 May 2009, 17:12, closed)

I won £1,990 on the National Lottery about six years ago
Which was nice.
(Vice Admiral Sir Charles Cockbrush KCB MBE DSO, who is finding it increasingly difficult to log into b3ta.com wants to duck your aunt and kick your puppy, Fri 8 May 2009, 18:01, closed)

I once heard that the odds of being hit by lightning are 7 million to 1.
So you are twice as likely to be hit by lightning as you are to win the lottery.
( Colonel Dracula Two manky hookers and a racist dwarf, Mon 11 May 2009, 10:12, closed)

But...
I've been struck by lightning...

Does that mean I should or shouldn't buy a lottery ticket?!
(Littlemisselvis, Tue 12 May 2009, 15:02, closed)