It'll be interest rates, not really much else to say about it.
And that'll bring the housing market into the downward drive it shoudl have experienced two years ago.

Right, back to lunch.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:43, 2 replies, latest was 15 years ago)

I'm more concerned about the impact on the somewhat shaky economic growth
Housing in the South East should remain fine really.
( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:45, Reply)

it better had do
i'm living in my retirement plan
( rachelswipe with a fork, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:46, Reply)

YOU NEED TO BE PAYING MORE TAX TO FUND SOMALIAN TRIBES LIVING IN ACTON

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:49, Reply)

argh
i had a case in uxbridge where 17 somalian refugees were living in a 3 bed house. they started praying at 4am and when my client asked them to keep it down, the father said: "children must pray"

the children didn't learn anything godly. they ripped up the fenceposts, sharpened the points into spears, and chucked them at my clients in their garden. actually it was hard not to laugh at that part.
( rachelswipe with a fork, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:52, Reply)

SPEARCHUCKERS

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:52, Reply)

Rory, you appear to be on the wrong website here

( sporters I’m sincerely gratitude to you, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:46, Reply)

he'll be rolling around on the floor
bleeding clotted blackberries from his gash and screaming about how people don't take his politics seriously in a minute.
( rachelswipe with a fork, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:47, Reply)

*borks*

( Agnostic Antichrist Baltimora, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:48, Reply)

I should fucking hope so too

( sporters I’m sincerely gratitude to you, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:48, Reply)

Yeah, I should leave really
*one lucky day*
( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:48, Reply)

It's not fine at the moment, it's massivley overpriced.
The latest figures on cash purchases show this. Something like 60% of new homes are unmortgaged. That means another crash is coming.
(PsychoChomp, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:47, Reply)

Banks are willing to lend, and prices are forecast to continue their trend downwards until 2015

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:51, Reply)

Banks are willing to lend to people with large savings.
Given that this crash happened to a generation that was used to lots of readily available credit, you'll find there aren't actually all that many people on average incomes with tens of thousands of pounds in the bank.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:52, Reply)

If by the average age of 38 as first purchase, if you haven't mustered 20k as a deposit you should shoot yourself

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:55, Reply)

This crash was caused for precisely this reason.
lots and lots of credit debt, no savings to pay it off.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:56, Reply)

The kids should be saving then
Also far more individuals are after their own homes see Broken Briton marriage breakdowns and breakdown of the family life in general
( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:58, Reply)

They are with large deposits,
large deposits require the sort of disposable income that inflation is eating into.
Hopefully there'll be a massive crash soon while I'm still renting.
(PsychoChomp, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:54, Reply)

Highly doubtful, see housing shortage in South East

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:55, Reply)

My parents trot out this reasoning each time the subject comes up.
Prices of houses have only an incidental relationship to how many houses are on the market.

House prices oscillate due to the amount of money available to buyers, which then has a knock-on effect to availability, not the other way around.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:58, Reply)

Your parents are right and you should shut your face

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:00, Reply)

This time next year, old boy.
Same place, bring some apologies.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:01, Reply)

I've heard the same for the past ten years, the South East will always do alright
*trigger finger*
( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:04, Reply)

Not in a general housing market crash it won't be.

( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:05, Reply)

True, but there's already been a significant correction, and during the crash of the 90's I don't remember them giving houses away in London, not that the first time buyer could have afforded the interest rates of he time

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:10, Reply)

The nineties was a slightly different scenario
My parents bought a house in 1983 for around 20k. Before the credit crunch it was worth 250k. In those last twenty years, there wasn't suddenly ten times more people wanting to buy that house. What happened was steady devaluation of the pound, which led to more money being available in loans, which led to house prices going up.

Then the whole buy to let thing took off and pushed the relative value up higher. There are several reasons why buy to let is going to fail and three of them are lack of credit, increasing interest rates and Capital Gains Tax.

The lack of credit is going to drive the drop in relative house prices, the South East isn't immune to that. As interest rate rise, as they will have to if they're going to stop inflation more and more people are going to be in the same position as they were three years ago, only this time there won't be the available bail-out money because interest is already at rock bottom.

The only way house prices aren't going to fall is if they allow inflation to occur.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:16, Reply)

House prices across the rest of the UK have been falling
London is it's own special micro climate, because the people that work in the city earn stupid money and so can afford stupid prices for shitty little flats just so they are close to a tube line.
(Bazongaloid, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:26, Reply)

there will always be some areas which are less affected
central london is one of those. eg my flat is still worth about £150k more than i paid for it about 5 years ago - this is partly because we got a good deal at the time, but mostly because of the location and type of block, meaning that there are a lot of foreign investors/purchasers/governments wanting to buy them. whereas my grandma's house, up in halifax, dropped from about £110k to £80k over the same period.
( rachelswipe with a fork, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:22, Reply)

I don't believe you can actually stop the boom and bust cycle.
They certainly can't stop this one. They've poured money into it for years and have only managed to get some very slight growth going on at a 0.5% interest rate. They cannot keep that interest rate going without Wiemar levels of inflation.

There's going to be a depression and the sooner they get on with it, the sooner it'll be over.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:47, Reply)

Also, viz housing in the South East
around here people have to mortgage themselves up to the hilt in order to afford somewhere. House prices have little to do with value of property and everything to do with availability of loans.

No loans = price crash. It's as true in the South East as it is anywhere else.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:50, Reply)

Housing shortages are most acute in the South East, there's also a significant level of foreign investment still

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:52, Reply)

Doesn't make any difference if all those people wanting to buy
can't secure the size of a mortgage they'll need to buy that 180 thousand pound one bedroom flat "starter property" they want. And they can't.

So prices will come down.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:54, Reply)

There's always a 90k studio in Romford
Romfords lovely
( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:56, Reply)

Don't joke
I've even been looking in Hillingdon.
( Kroney, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:59, Reply)

Come out to Slough.
Much cheaper.
( Bartleby A dead man on vacation, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:00, Reply)

I only know Northwood there, which is quite pricey. Steer clear of Watford, that is all

( Light In Chains maker of the ikea sofa, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:01, Reply)

Life lesson right here folks!

( sporters I’m sincerely gratitude to you, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:02, Reply)

Hahahaha
watford is shitty, even compared to Luton.
( Bartleby A dead man on vacation, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:03, Reply)

It's nothing like as bad as Luton.

(Bazongaloid, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:26, Reply)

I beg to differ.
We can discuss this at Blousie's, or talk about something more interesting.
( Bartleby A dead man on vacation, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:28, Reply)

Can I put in a vote for something more interesting.
I'll bring my waterproof trousers if you like?
(Bazongaloid, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:29, Reply)

Whoah there!
Not that interesting.
( Bartleby A dead man on vacation, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:30, Reply)

Oh sorry.
I'm sure Noel can talk about walking boots, I'll nod and look interested.
(Bazongaloid, Tue 17 May 2011, 13:31, Reply)

A had a char-grilled aubergine wrap with red onion and chilli
Very odd but quite tasty
( sporters I’m sincerely gratitude to you, Tue 17 May 2011, 12:45, Reply)