

Click for bigger (19 kb)
(sorry for the height)


I almost feel compelled to put a youtube video below this, but I don't know if readings of Murray's mathematical biology are on there...
ed: have ruibin instead:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOO599_y2e8

makes things that are really small seem very large when they're right by you... Which is the whole swine flu problem all over.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 13:44,
archived)

but that's because 15 to 60 million people get it, which simply means that the mortality rate is extremely low (0.06-0.2%)
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 13:52,
archived)



what are the morbidity and mortality rate? That's what matters!
The common flu infects 5-20% of all people and has a mortality rate of .06-2%.
Swine flu? Any idea?
Mortality estimates range from 1 to 30% and seems extremely infectious.
If we have so few deaths is because of swift reactions.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 13:49,
archived)
The common flu infects 5-20% of all people and has a mortality rate of .06-2%.
Swine flu? Any idea?
Mortality estimates range from 1 to 30% and seems extremely infectious.
If we have so few deaths is because of swift reactions.

school lockdown in NY, quarantine of infected people and people that entered in contact with them, screening for symptoms at airports, alert network for physicians.
The thing is that epidemics grow exponentially, and therefore it's always better to err on the safe side as it might be very quickly be to late.
Put yourself in the shoes of an health official that hears that mortality rate could be as high as 30%.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 13:55,
archived)
The thing is that epidemics grow exponentially, and therefore it's always better to err on the safe side as it might be very quickly be to late.
Put yourself in the shoes of an health official that hears that mortality rate could be as high as 30%.


and in general they only actively act (direct interview) on flights from places where the risk of contagion is high.
edit: in fact there was a bit of a row between the TSA airport screeners and homeland security officers because it appeared that homeland security did not want screeners to wear masks.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:02,
archived)
edit: in fact there was a bit of a row between the TSA airport screeners and homeland security officers because it appeared that homeland security did not want screeners to wear masks.

We'd best PANIC then!
*runs around screaming and waving hands in the air, as instructed*
Oh my gooooood! We're allll going to DIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEE!
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:05,
archived)
*runs around screaming and waving hands in the air, as instructed*
Oh my gooooood! We're allll going to DIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEE!

'BULLSHIT!!!' and 'PANIC!!!!'
The 'inform yourself, be aware of the symptoms and minimize the risk of contagion' seems to be generally disabled.
I agree that media, as always, are the major culprit.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:10,
archived)
The 'inform yourself, be aware of the symptoms and minimize the risk of contagion' seems to be generally disabled.
I agree that media, as always, are the major culprit.

Your reaction was "Yeah but no but that's 'cos that's normal but this is DIFFERENT!"
It's another 'flu. Either you'll get it, or you won't.
Either you'll die, or you won't.
No amount of hand-washing or coughing into your sleeve is going to stop that, because not everyone is going to follow the rules.
As long as you're fit, healthy and preferably in your prime, then you're the least at risk.
Either way, there's absolutely nothing you can do about it.
Going around going "Ah but these are the stats" will neither protect you nor make you better.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:16,
archived)
It's another 'flu. Either you'll get it, or you won't.
Either you'll die, or you won't.
No amount of hand-washing or coughing into your sleeve is going to stop that, because not everyone is going to follow the rules.
As long as you're fit, healthy and preferably in your prime, then you're the least at risk.
Either way, there's absolutely nothing you can do about it.
Going around going "Ah but these are the stats" will neither protect you nor make you better.

No, not at all. This flu might cause an overreaction from the immune system (cytokine storm, scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2009/04/swine_flu_and_deaths_in_health.php after this story was published some official data were released and confirmed the higher mortality among young adults) that, in the end, kills you.
Also, to prevent spreading, is not that if one person doesn't wash their hands we are doomed. The more people pay attention to the symptoms and follow these rules, the better everyone is.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:28,
archived)
Also, to prevent spreading, is not that if one person doesn't wash their hands we are doomed. The more people pay attention to the symptoms and follow these rules, the better everyone is.

OH MY GOD PAAAAANIC!
FFS.
Not everyone washes their hands.
Not everyone coughs into their sleeve.
Either you'll get it, or you won't.
Either you'll die, or you won't.
You may like to read the story of King Cnut.
Or fuss about getting cancer.
Either you will, or you won't.
There's absolutely nothing - NOTHING - you can do about it.
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:32,
archived)
FFS.
Not everyone washes their hands.
Not everyone coughs into their sleeve.
Either you'll get it, or you won't.
Either you'll die, or you won't.
You may like to read the story of King Cnut.
Or fuss about getting cancer.
Either you will, or you won't.
There's absolutely nothing - NOTHING - you can do about it.

Malaria - mosquitos
Measles - weasles
Normal flu - flumingoes
Swine flu - pigs
Its an animal conspiracy!
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:03,
archived)
Measles - weasles
Normal flu - flumingoes
Swine flu - pigs
Its an animal conspiracy!

I don't like meat, but I'm eating it because animals are such cunts.

the never ending battle
(no, the sun is not rotating around the earth and yes, not only you can build a boat out of metal, you can even make it fly)
edit: also the title is misleading, and it's ordered categorical data vs. ordered categorical, so the linear interpolation between two categories is meaningless. What you probably want is some correlation matrix plot (plus I doubt that the counts for all the other categories are 0).
( ,
Tue 5 May 2009, 14:58,
archived)
(no, the sun is not rotating around the earth and yes, not only you can build a boat out of metal, you can even make it fly)
edit: also the title is misleading, and it's ordered categorical data vs. ordered categorical, so the linear interpolation between two categories is meaningless. What you probably want is some correlation matrix plot (plus I doubt that the counts for all the other categories are 0).