A great podcast about rapid testing
Edit: I take back my inflammatory description. Let's just say - I find this person's ideas intriguing, and if his hypothesis is true we could use it to beat covid. PINCH OF SALT NEEDED
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 17:18, Reply)
Sounds well fake
Stop buying into and spreading this shit
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Fadgebadger Sweaty sumo wanks for everyone!, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 17:41,
Reply)
Which of these two and a quarter hours are relevant to the point you're trying to make?
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evil_andy Stick stick stick stick sticky sticky stick stick, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 18:09,
Reply)
oh YOU don't need to watch any of it.
because it will all be nonsense and lies to you. go fuck yourself
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 18:22, Reply)
Hooray! That's two and a quarter hours of my life not utterly wasted.
Talking of utterly wasted, where's Dogbomb these days?
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evil_andy Stick stick stick stick sticky sticky stick stick, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 20:53,
Reply)
The campaign of harassment reaches its crescendo here
b3ta.com/links/1552820
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 22:10, Reply)
That guy is a horrible cunt and a fucking mental
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Fadgebadger Sweaty sumo wanks for everyone!, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 22:31,
Reply)
ah christ i had him on ignore
as did most of b3ta by the looks of it. Attention seeking needy prick.
Fuck's fucking sake a weird vendetta against dogbomb of all people.
(, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 10:35, Reply)
he put me on ignore, but not before I had a fun time exposing him for a hypocritical fantasist whoremonger that he is, who spent 4 years brothel creeping underage prostitutes in thailand
if he's around tell him I said Hi
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 13:18,
Reply)
I've been bullied like this before
The 'man' involved is still obsessed with me, 10 years later. The same dangerous allegations were made, based on nothing, but he's never had the balls to do it under his own name, only through sock puppets and meat puppets.
I've often suspected projection was involved, and it appears to be the case here, too.
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Manic can teach you the secret of fire, Tue 22 Dec 2020, 17:24,
Reply)
I feel for you
there seems to be few of these weird people around, with broken immature obsessive egos, and little self awareness of their actions. I suspect they were always there, but confined to their daydreams of revenge and triumph. Now the anonymity of the internet has given them an avenue to indulge them without the usual consequence. It's a drag when coming to a comedy site to make jokes and have a laugh to have to deal with this, and there's always the danger it will progress to something more sinister as it sounds like in your case, which is a risk when you're dealing with people who are basically fuckwits.
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Tue 22 Dec 2020, 22:03,
Reply)
Nothing showing on his new channel either last time I checked
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jonbob loves you, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 18:40,
Reply)
I got spammed to hell with Lex Friedman suggestions a while back...
I cannot stand the sound of his voice. I know it's not completely his fault, buh iss lhk he doeszn care enough abouh whah he's sayih to complehhhly fohm his worhs out louh.
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brb man-child cuck corporate supplicant fuck, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 18:10,
Reply)
It sounds like he'd have the same impediment in every language.
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brb man-child cuck corporate supplicant fuck, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 19:03,
Reply)
So he claims
Unfortunately he doesn’t even name the tests in order for viewers to verify those claims.
ALWAYS go back to source data. If you can’t do that because it’s not provided, then treat any wild claims with deep suspicion.
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wheresthefish Partly filled with wrong, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 19:16,
Reply)
Not sure what you're asking
The general name for the tests are lateral flow tests
The specific ones he has in front of him are all listed on rapidtests.org
links mentioned are in the description
Michael's Time article:
time.com/5912705/covid-19-stop-spread-christmas/
Rapid Tests:
www.rapidtests.org/
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 19:46, Reply)
Source data. Peer reviewed scientific papers that validate your claims.
The Time article is basically the same guy making the same argument. It can be discounted.
The other site appears to be a pressure site created by a well-intentioned amateur, inviting me to "Write my Rep". The only thing close to a scientific paper that I could find linked within had the following footnote:
"NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice."
Which is awkward.
Also, it is probably worth noting that there has been an active trial of these Lateral Flow tests within Liverpool for about the last two months. They're still in Tier 3.
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wheresthefish Partly filled with wrong, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 21:29,
Reply)
well he does mention papers he's written
I agree they should be cited and it's unfortunate that they're not. But on the other hand, this is a pulpy pod-cast so not surprising. He's a university prof so I imagine there are peer reviewed articles by himself or his lab out there.
The main point I got from this conversation regarding these tests is that they are 50% accurate when compared to PCR tests - which is what the liverpool pilot was all about- but they are +99% at detecting active virus. the PCR test is finding the RNA signature, something you can be shedding weeks after the infection has passed. I hold out hope that these new fast tests will become available to the public and that they make a difference when rolled out to schools next month. I'm sure it would be a game changer if you could get a pack of 5 tests for £20 at boots.
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 21:55, Reply)
And right on cue:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/plans-for-30-minute-covid-lateral-flow-tests-in-england-halted-over-accuracy-fears
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wheresthefish Partly filled with wrong, Tue 22 Dec 2020, 15:54,
Reply)
ASSUMING the high success rate is true in ideal conditions,
how will it perform when people use it inexpertly, are carriers, lie about having a test, use it as an excuse to avoid hygiene and social distancing, store it incorrectly, etc.
What surprises me most, if it is so good why not licence it in another country and become a billionaire?
Edit: False negatives are a problem, as are low viral loads fullfact.org/health/lateral-flow-test/
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FeralCatMan Long ads need comments sections, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 20:13,
Reply)
What I want to know is when you're going to stop being a cunt
cunt
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 20:29, Reply)
If indeed I am a cunt as you claim
then your face must be the place from whence I came
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 21:58, Reply)
If we're being pedantic
It's "whence", not "from whence".
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tarka_dall Like normal dall, only a bit more spicy, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 16:34,
Reply)
don't blame me, it's a quote from Blackadder
*replace cunt with fart
(, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 17:48, Reply)
Alexei Sayles' "Stuff"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnPfgX82GmM
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social hand grenade I was a lurker before you were a lurker, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 19:02,
Reply)
these tests he's pushing are dangerously inadequate
www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4744
The lateral flow devices used in the community testing pilot in Liverpool only picked up half the covid-19 cases detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests and missed three out of 10 cases with higher viral loads, according to the government’s own policy paper.
Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham and leader of the Cochrane Collaboration’s covid-19 test evaluation activities, told The BMJ, “The results are hidden as a single sentence in the annex of a document. This is not the way important scientific findings should be made public, particularly when the test is going to be used off label with hundreds of thousands of people.”
The guidance says that the Innova lateral flow tests offer 99.6% specificity and “the measured test sensitivity, in ideal hands is 76.8%” but “is likely to be lower under operational conditions.”
The document then adds, “In the field evaluation in Liverpool, compared with PCR tests, these tests picked up five out of 10 of the cases PCR detected and more than seven out of 10 cases with higher viral loads, who are likely to be the most infectious.”
Deeks said, “These results are devastating—they are missing a third of those with high viral loads. How can these tests be used for safe entry into care homes, for healthcare workers to safely return to work, or for the safe return of students? They are not fit for purpose.”
Allyson Pollock, director of the Newcastle University Centre for Excellence in Regulatory Science and a member of Independent SAGE, said, “This is scandalous. Where are the data underpinning the statement in the document? Mass testing should be paused until we see the evidence and Liverpool evaluation.”
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 23:03,
Reply)
organisation, the majority of whom were fully paid members of and organisers of Momentum.
Independent SAGE is not independent at all, but a highly political organisation, the majority of whom were fully paid members of and organisers of Momentum.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 23:10,
Reply)
what an odd accusation to make
given that Independent Sage are the principle advisory group to boris johnson and worked with dominic cummings who sat in on their meetings, and whose main criticisms has been that they're too closely aligned with Johnsons policies
maybe you need to add an extra layer of foil to your hat
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 23:49,
Reply)
No. Wrong. Again.
SAGE and Independent SAGE are two very different organisations.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 0:38,
Reply)
ah you are right on this, a bit confusing given SAGE call themselves an Independent advisory group, I assumed you were using a formal title for them
still, couldn't find a single link between this other group's members and Momentum, apart from King being an ex-science advisor to Blair and Brown's government. Still, not particularly pertinent to the BMJ article
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 0:58,
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Hmmm, it’s almost as if Independent SAGE actually want to be confused with SAGE by people.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 2:24,
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like the Real IRA I guess
their published advice seems better than the SAGE that's been advising the government when I read through their covid press releases, but that's not really saying much.
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 4:11,
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Certainly their advice has consistently been uncannily in line with that of all the trades unions.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 8:32,
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the metaphor was contextual
in the sense of two organisations with highly similar names and purposes leading to confusion. you forgetting to capitalise "real" shows it's an apt one, as one could easily confuse that you were referencing the genuine IRA instead of the splinter organisation, especially if you were to read your reply out of context as you've done to mine
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 13:14,
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Shut up you numpty windbag. You fell for it because you’re a mug.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 13:22,
Reply)
haha,
i love it how easy you are to wind up. I should have thrown in a few usage examples
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 21:07,
Reply)
I love how you always accuse me of being wound up and angry.
It’s always the final stage of your straw clutching.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 21:29,
Reply)
"I know you are but what am I? "
even your wound-up attempts at ripostes are first form
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 22:15,
Reply)
Now you’re doing that thing where you invent quotes.
It’s like you have a checklist.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 22:40,
Reply)
paraphrasing is the only way to keep myself entertained when arguing with a dullard
even that simple concept is beyond you
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 23:14,
Reply)
If you’re paraphrasing, why are you using quotation marks? Mug.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 23:30,
Reply)
you're really quite poor at grammar, aren't you? Not the best quality in a pedantic dullard, but who am I to judge?
quotation marks are used in paraphrasing to indicate to the reader that it's you that I'm paraphrasing, rather than making my own statement. It's no different to how regular quotes are used.
to give you a usage example, I could paraphrase your above reply by getting to the essence of it with: "I don't really understand paraphrasing".
Now, I guess you'll claim your ignorance was a deliberate wind-up, but I know from considerable experience you really are that witless. Combined with an infantile and borderline sociopathic refusal to deal with being in error, it's quite the combination
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 23:49,
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And we're back to clutching at straws.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Tue 22 Dec 2020, 0:11,
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yet another expression whose application you haven't quite grasped
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Tue 22 Dec 2020, 1:37,
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It’s a political organisation. Here are a few details. There’s much more just on their Twitter accounts.
Professor Susan Michie
Member of the British Communist Party of 40 years.
Donated £14,000 to the Labour Party under Corbyn.
Wife of former Corbyn Spad Andrew Murray.
Mother of Labour’s former Head of Complaints Laura Murray who didn’t take antisemitism at all seriously
Dr Zubaida Haque
Claimed Labour antisemitism stories were ‘weaponised religion’ being stoked by “Steve Bannon politics“
Professor Gabriel Scally
Labour activist.
Donated thousands to Labour.
Labour policy adviser.
member of Labour policy forum.
Professor Christina Pagel
Anti-Brexit campaigner.
Labour activist and Labour List writer.
Professor Allyson Pollock
Author of a conspiracy book “NHS plc: The Privatisation of Our Health Care”.
President of the Socialist Health Association.
Senior trade unionist.
Claimed Brexit “will axe the right to health”.
Vocal Corbyn supporter, called Blairite MPs “bullying”, “backstabbing” and “undemocratic”.
Wants to nationalise old people’s homes.
Professor Martin McKee
Board member of ‘Scientists for EU’.
‘Core team member’ Healthier IN the EU.
Called EU referendum ‘criminal’.
Questioned if Corbyn was really a negative for the Labour Party.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 20:20,
Reply)
Good luck finding top scientists who are also right wing.
Hopefully this is a penny drop moment for you.
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brb man-child cuck corporate supplicant fuck, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 22:02,
Reply)
Donating money to Labour under Corbyn’s leadership doesn’t?
All donations named above were.
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Prufrock Lucifer, son of the morning!, Tue 22 Dec 2020, 18:37,
Reply)
The organisation known as Momentum require their members to also be members of Labour. Labour do not require their members to be members of Momentum,
and donating to Labour doesn't even require membership of the Labour party, let alone Momentum.
You're just wrong about this. You need better sources of information.
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brb man-child cuck corporate supplicant fuck, Tue 22 Dec 2020, 19:12,
Reply)
if it turns out that
these tests do not in fact detect active virus well then please accept my apology for saying that they do. It's actually unclear to me if these huge viral loads that the liverpool tests were missing were active or inactive. The physician in the post cast seems to be saying that the difference in results is because the PCR test detects RNA (including inactive viruses and viral fragments) and the Flow Tests detects actual active virus, - if the load is past a threshold. In any case, if we assume the worst that these tests only work 50% of the time, but when they do work they are 99.6% accurate, then this still could be enough to supress the virus effectively with mass testing. I tend to agree with the views in the podcast, which is why I posted it.
(, Sun 20 Dec 2020, 23:51, Reply)
it not a matter of "turning out". It's shortcomings were in the government guidance. Their report had a headline rate 99.6% specificity for these tests, though it didn't provide the supporting data. but in the same guidance in the accompanying annex, it had a single sentence: “the measured test sensitivity, in ideal hands is 76.8%” but “is likely to be lower under operational conditions.” this seems quite pertinent to bury in the annex, don't you think?
An actual subsequent trial of the test showed 50% specificity, and crucially missed 1/3 of high viral load cases
So some vblogger you've posted making the claim it could have saved 1000s of lives seems highly dubious. It seems more of a case of the government dangerously bigging-up some new test far more than is supported by the data.
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 0:12,
Reply)
OK
please tell me, this 'missing 1/3 of high loads' fact. which I do not dispute. Does that refer to active or inactive virus? Because as I keep trying to say, it is my understanding that this test will not detect inactive viruses. This point is key. Also I think calling him 'Some vblogger' is a little defamatory, the man is an 'immunologist, epidemiologist, and physician at Harvard'. So he's not just some vblogger. Having said that I agree that this podcast may not represent the ultimate truth on the matter and I am trying to have an open mind on this. In other words I agree that it's pinch of salt time, And I have changed the description to reflect this, but my current position is that we should not dismiss it as untrue.
(, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 10:42, Reply)
You're describing a coin toss which doesn't quite give you heads or tails.
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brb man-child cuck corporate supplicant fuck, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 0:32,
Reply)
coin toss no
Because: if it is indeed only 50% for active virus detection.
then it will ALWAYS give a negative for a negative.
and SOMETIMES give a positive for a positive.
so still a useful coin to use in a population of millions as it could be all you need to keep r below 1.
(, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 10:08, Reply)
It sounds like an excellent business model, you have to keep taking more of them whenever you get a negative.
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brb man-child cuck corporate supplicant fuck, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 17:25,
Reply)
in real world terms
I think it would work something like,
no syptoms + negative L.F. = carry on.
No symptoms + Positive= get a PCR test and isolate.
If you develop symptoms, isolate and get a PCR.
Regarding business model, these tests are less than £1 each to manufacture. So yes huge market
(, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 17:40, Reply)
"only work 50% of the time, but when they do work they are 99.6% accurate" is a classic sentence
From the naked gun: www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDoncJckows
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cumquat may will not be commenting further on the allegations, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 0:38,
Reply)
From 'instructions for use' of this test
Positive results do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease.
Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or patient management decisions, including infection control decisions.
The SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test is intended for use by trained clinical laboratory personnel specifically instructed and trained in the techniques of in vitro diagnostic procedures
cdn.website-editor.net/6f54caea7c6f4adfba8399428f3c0b0c/files/uploaded/Innova-SARS-Cov-2-Antigen-test-IFU.pdf
Yes, a cheap and easy to use screening test would be a marvelous tool to prevent the spread, but this test is totally unsuitable and was never intended for that task.
A claim that 'we could've beaten covid months ago' is wildly inaccurate and unhelpful.
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Tusk knows where you live, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 3:30,
Reply)
yes and no
It could be the case that these tests could have stopped covid in its tracks months ago. So not wildly inaccurate, but definitely speculative.. Or to put it another way, a guess. I probably should not have claimed that, but still it could be true. Because all they need to do is be good enough to hold r below 1. if r is held below 1 then covid goes away. Pretty much the same reasoning that if a vaccine is 50% effective it will beat the virus. But there are lots of unknowns here, not least of which is public co-operation. The quote from the instructions of use is not quite as black and white as it appears. Let me explain.
1) positive results do not rule out co-infection..
For getting covid r below 1 this is irrelevant.
2) Negative results do not rule out covid..
as I said above, if used by the entire population and acted upon regardless of false negatives, it should still hold r below 1.
3) use only by trained professionals..
This is put there for legal reasons, because tests like this in the USA fall into a weird grey area. They literally can't sell this test unless it's classed as a medicine. If it were not classed as a medicine, it would not need that part of the label. Put it this way, these tests are too be used in schools in the UK, probably by the staff - not professional, hopefully we'll see if it makes a difference.
regarding the validity of the claims I would say, this podcast shows some interesting and logical ideas, but should be taken with a pinch of salt as its really fuel for debate rather than a proven theory
(, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 10:33, Reply)
no you are
only joking. I guess you're just being argumentative for the sake of it, in any case maybe I am wrong about some aspect. But you imply that everything I said in the above statement is wrong? y / n
(, Mon 21 Dec 2020, 13:29, Reply)
