So...
Some knife bearing scrote mugged me, around this time last month.

Over the weekend, some other scrote broke into my flat and stole a couple of grand's worth of stuff.

What're the odds on me being raped or murdered this time next month?
( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:19, archived)

Nailed on if you put your address up on here.
Go on.
( mr_wicksy is.... old., Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:20, archived)

Number 49...
...wait, is this for rape, or murder?
( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

Take your pick.
Obviously I'm not volunteering, but I'm sure another trucker named dave might.
( mr_wicksy is.... old., Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:23, archived)

was that rape of the back-
or front-bottom variety?
( Frumbert has no sig, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

I'm male.
Front bottom rape would take some effort.
( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:25, archived)

no higher than they were before the other two things happened.

( Moon Girl Technologies horrendous beanbag, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:20, archived)

That's no fun.

( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

statistics and probability generally isn't.

( Moon Girl Technologies horrendous beanbag, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:22, archived)

It should be.

( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:23, archived)

What percent of it isn't?

( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

It can be!
www.versificator.co.uk/misc/monty-hall-problem.html
( Newington, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

I've never got my head around this.

( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:26, archived)

I find this one really easy.
The chance that you'll win if you switch is the chance that you already picked a goat: 2/3.
It's the forgetful host variant that stumps me.
( Newington, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:28, archived)

...
*head asplodes*
( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:30, archived)

they're just not counting the results when the host chooses the car,
so he may as well have just known anyway.
( Moon Girl Technologies horrendous beanbag, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:31, archived)

No.
It goes back to 1/3 discounting those results.
( Newington, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:35, archived)

I'm getting 1/2.
I think it's because when the host fucks up, it means you definitely didn't choose the car the first time, so it's throwing away half the times that you didn't choose the car, leaving you more likely to have picked the car the first time, which reduces the benefit of switching.
( Moon Girl Technologies horrendous beanbag, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:39, archived)

Wikipedia says 1/3.
Probably statistical clustering. Try it with more doors - if it were the same as the host-knows version, you'd win 9/10 times for ten doors.

Edit: no, sorry... it always ends up a 1/2 chance if you exclude those cases, yes, with any number of doors (assuming the host gets down to 2 doors without opening one on the car.) The point is that you don't gain anything by switching.
( Newington, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:42, archived)

it's 1/3 overall, including the host fuck ups,
but it's 1/2 for each of switching and not switching.
( Moon Girl Technologies horrendous beanbag, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:43, archived)

Of course it is.
Sorry.
( Newington, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:44, archived)

I can follow that explanation when I see it written down (I can even come up with it if I think hard enough)
but I can't Get My Head Round It and make it seem intuitive and obvious to me like the normal version now does.
( Newington, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:47, archived)

the probability of choosing the car the first time is 1/3.
the probability of choosing a goat the first time is 2/3.
If you chose a goat the first time, the probability of the host chooing the car is 1/2. So the probability of you choosing a goat and the result being counted is only 1/3.

So now you're in the situation where, if you chose the car the first time you will definitely win if you stick. But if you chose a goat the first time, you will definitely win if you swap. But the probability of each of those situations coming up is the same. i.e. 1/3, or 1/2 of the valid results.
( Moon Girl Technologies horrendous beanbag, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:54, archived)

It's bound to happen.
Quick, get down to Ladbrooks and put a bet on. It may just pay for your funeral.
( Captn Hood-Butter is not dead yet., Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:20, archived)

Hooray!

( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

100% chance of rape

( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:20, archived)

Where do you live?

( Donkey Gums @mattcomedy, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:20, archived)

Bad things happen in threes
maybe they'll kill your loved ones.
( Stoopiduk is the waterboatman., Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

aw, that's a bit shit.
where do you live?
( spangolin - the odds are good but the goods are odd, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

I'm guessing
Kidbrooke?
( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

I got mugged in Oxford, and my flat's in Bournemouth.
I've just realised, though; I'll be in Majorca this time next month.

So either some Spanish island inbreed will get me, or my plane will crash.

Balls.

At least it'll be sunny.
( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:22, archived)

Maybe it will be a bad thing disguised as a good thing.
Like a holiday romance that ends in you getting AIDs.

Happy holidays!
( Stoopiduk is the waterboatman., Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

Yay!

( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:29, archived)

I always managed never to get mugged in Oxford.

( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

It's given me an attack of the racisms, too.

( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:27, archived)

Mugged in Oxford? I'm surprised he didn't try and mug you by using his shape wit and quoting at you

( Donkey Gums @mattcomedy, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

He was very polite about the whole thing.
...I think. That was partly my own fault for being a little under the influence.

Though it -was- just outside my flat, the cunt.
( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:26, archived)

Move house.
You obviously live in a shit place.
( Captain Wow currently being a cunt in Infamous, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

I think you have really hairy lips which is why you got so upset with me the other day.
I realise now that I was being insensitive and wish to say sorry.

Sorry.
( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:22, archived)

this will help.

( Moon Girl Technologies horrendous beanbag, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:23, archived)

Yes, I have a massive handlebar moustache, and I can't believe people notice it.
I've also got a beard of Gandalf-like proportions.

Well done on that whole 'being nice' thing, by the way.
( Captain Wow currently being a cunt in Infamous, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:23, archived)

I think its going rather well.

( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:28, archived)

That's quite obviously the only POSSIBLE reason.

( Newington, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

I'd glad you agree.

( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:29, archived)

Better if you post up your address, time table and list of fears.

( The Gentleman Bastard waxing lyrical. ©, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

www.b3ta.com/talk/5363604
( The Baroness The Harlot Pimpernel, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:26, archived)

Where do you live?
Just so I remember to be the opposite end of the country when you get buggered next month
( executiverocker only wears C&A, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

You'll still hear the screams.

( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:27, archived)

You have to turn your fortune around
by becoming one of these people to ensure it doesn't happen to you again
( Malaka omdz, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:21, archived)

Good thinking.
I'll go mug, burgle, rape and murder someone.

Then I'll be safe.
( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

It's like a lady's menstrual cycle, only with crime.

( Comma, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:22, archived)

and less blood

( WormuIus, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:23, archived)

Possibly.

( gone, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)

Not necessarily.

( Comma, Wed 27 Aug 2008, 11:24, archived)